2015年10月4日星期日

貨幣只是憑空創造的一張紙?!



從前金本位支持的貨幣,能夠兌換指定數量的黃金或白銀,於是,人民對貨幣有信心,並且公認其存在的價值。可是,自1971年起,當美國完全放棄金本位貨幣政策,帶動全世界的國家都一同效法。導致現今世界上已經不存在以金銀作保證的貨幣,只剩下政府以自己信譽來保證的價值。隨著現時全球經濟波動的影響下,一旦爆發新一輪經濟爆破,你手上貨幣的價值,極可能化整為零.....

貨幣的真正價值

經濟角度而言,現時我們手上所持有的,都是由政府發行的貨幣。實質上,它與報章雜誌卻是毫無分別,都只是用油墨印刷在紙張上而成的,甚至都是任由出版商印上售價標明所謂的價值。

單以報章雜誌的價值來看,完全取決於你的觀點。自從貨幣無法脫離金本位開始,它就單純變成人民對政府信任的證明書,於是,貨幣價值就代表人民對其政府或中央銀行的信心指標。

貨幣和商品同樣受經濟學最基本的「供應和需求」關係所影響。假若政府增加開支,如提高對社會福利的撥款,或是各政府部門增加開支,當稅收不足以支付開支,便會出現赤字。一般政府都不能藉著隨使增加稅收來達至收支平衡,否則,下一屆選舉時,政府必定會被選民唾棄。所以,政府的做法慣常就是發行有利息的債券,賣給市民或其他國家,以維持足夠的營運資金。其實,政府利用人民對自己的信任,憑空創造債券,從而得到一大筆金錢來平衡政府赤字,情況就正如銀行藉著借出資金,憑空創造利息。

貨幣的結局是等待爆破一刻?!

受經濟學的供求關係影響下,即使貨幣的供應增加,相對地能夠用貨幣購買的物品數量若追不上貨幣增長的速度,最終在貨幣多,但物品少的情況下,最終導致物品價格上升而出現「通貨膨脹」。

(圖1)

自美國1971年取消金本位起,全世界隨之倣效,美國更是以幾何級數上升速度增加美鈔數量。當2008年金融海嘯過後,單以2.3萬億美元的國防部經費亦只能僅僅支付美國政府約一年開支,完全無法防止美國的破產,所以,美國政府更肆無忌憚地推出「量化寬鬆政策(Quantitative easing)」,完全無限制地瘋狂印製千萬億美鈔,甚至達到天文數字(見︰圖1)。現在,美國政府的國債經已達到18萬億的高峰。

《The history of fiat money failures》法定貨幣失敗的歷史的影片中, Dr.Lawrence Parks 指出美國過度印製美鈔,都不足以應付美國的赤字,更令人民失去保障,訪問內容節錄如下︰

So the self-correcting mechanism which was the link to gold was removed
那個與黃金聯系的「自我糾正機制」被解除

Consequently the system is ultimately headed for a blow-up
系統最終會爆破收場

because there's too much money being created by the Federal Reserve
因為美聯儲過度印製金錢

because there's too much money being spent by the federal government
因為聯邦政府開支過度龐大

which causing them to borrow
迫使他們借錢度日

and that ultimately gets monetized by the Federal Reserve
最終美聯儲便藉著買債增加貨幣供應

There's no self-correcting mechanism
完全欠缺一個自我糾正機制

and despite human efforts or plans to control that
儘管他們曾嘗試並計劃控制情況

there's never the political will to do it
但卻一直欠缺政治決心來實踐

Well, that's right
嗯,正確

and history of the world is that
世界歷史告訴我們

whenever the authorities have the ability to issue paper money
每當政府有發行紙幣的權力

they can never resist the temptation to over-issue
他們永遠無法抵擋濫發的誘惑

and the Catholic Church has a line for this, it’s a great line
而天主教有個很好的說法

and they have it exactly right and the line is
完全正確地形容此況

“In the face of temptation, reason succumbs.”
「試探當前,理性屈服」

And so if you go back, say, in France
如果你回顧一下,舉例法國

after the revolution when they were issuing the assignats
在法國大革命時當局發行「交付券」

there's a wonderful book about this by Andrew Dickson White
Andrew Dickson White 就此撰寫了一本很好的書

He’s one of my favorites
他是我最喜愛的作者之一

Fiat Money Inflation in France
《法國法定貨幣通脹》


It's...and I hand that book at everybody
我向所有人介紹那本書

In fact, I've given it to a lot of important people
其實我把它送給了很多重要人物

including that...John Paulson
包括對沖基金經理 John Paulson

Henry Kaufman, David Malpass
經濟學家 Henry Kaufman 和 David Malpass

I put it in the hands of this fellow Jean-Claude Trichet who heads the European Central Bank
我還把這書交給歐洲央行行長Jean-Claude Trichet

who set a meeting with him
有次我和他會面

and the cover of this book you know shows all this gold stuff
這本書的封面佈滿金幣

I thought he’d been carrying it around so that people would see
我想,若他四處帶著它,別人會看見

you know, he had
他真的有帶著這書

He turned it to the inside, you know, so people wouldn't see
但他把書打開,使人看不到書的封面

but interesting about that book is that
但那本書的有趣之處在於

the arguments that the French legislature put forth
法國議會提倡紙幣的論點

in favor of the paper money are the same arguments you hear today
與我們今天聽到的論點完全一樣

and they had a better case
他們的情況較合理

because in their case they said the money was backed by real estate
因為當時他們認為紙幣背後有房地產支持

you know by the church lands
就是教會的土地

Our money is backed by zippo
我們的貨幣是無任何東西支援的

Nothing
什麼都沒有

And theoretically it's backed by the unlimited taxing authority of the United States government
理論上它是由美國政府的無限徵稅權力所支持

but that assumes there’s something to tax, you know
但大前提是要有打稅項目

and today...I don’t know, 24 million people, either unemployed, part-time, looking for work
但2,400萬人中有失業、兼職或待業的

You’ve got probably four or five million houses that have been foreclosed
現大概已有4、5百萬所房屋被封

another three or four million houses going to be foreclosed
另外3、4百萬所房屋將也被封

You know, I could make a whole long list for you of all the stuff
我可以就這些事件寫一張清單給你

plus you have all these promises that the government has made
還有政府作出的各種承諾

and multi-trillion dollar deficits as far as the eye could see
以及數之不盡幾萬億美元的赤字

Even using the phony accounting, multi-trillion dollar deficits
即使用虛假的計算,也得出數萬億美元赤字

If you use real accounting, the deficits are multi-trillion dollars per year
如果你真正的計算,赤字是每年幾萬億美元之多

There’s no way to work your way out of that
這是行不通的

And worldwide, people are not protected
綜觀全球,人們普遍地失去保障

especially in the United States
美國尤其嚴重

相關影片︰The history of fiat money failures


小結

美國上百年所種下的經濟爆破計時炸彈,可謂妄顧人民的保障;現時更不擇手段地用冠冕堂皇的藉口「量化寬鬆政策QE」,憑空無限印製美鈔,逐步將全世界推進經濟崩潰的邊緣!


參考資料︰
USdebtclock
The history of fiat money failures
User:JasonCupertino/Sandbox
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/User:JasonCupertino/Sandbox#/media/File:St_Louis_Adjusted_Monetary_Base_Chart.jpg
Pentagon Missing Trillions CBS Reports Pentagon Missing $2.3 Trillion
Donald Rumsfeld announced that 2.3 Trillion Dollars Missing 1 day before 9/11 WTC Attacks
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6R6ofqAW8XM


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