2015年10月4日星期日

永遠不貶值的貨幣存在嗎?


前文已帶出,貨幣實際只是政府借人民對自己的信任而憑空創造的紙張。甚至,單以世界強國美國而言,由2008年財政赤字4,590億美元,跳至2009年足見1.4萬億美元,即每位國民也需要承擔逾$4,500美元。這就能解釋到她不斷借「量化寛鬆政策」無限量印製美鈔,結局令貨幣價值步向崩潰的局面。如此,各國爭相倣效美國的情況下,究竟又有否永遠不貶值的貨幣存在呢?

貨幣的壽命只有27年?!

誠然,從歷史角度來看,任何一種失去相對價值的貨幣,平均大約只有27年壽命,隨後便會完全崩潰,變為廢紙。


就以1920年代初為例,德國物價曾每49小時增加一倍;以及1940年代初,希臘被德國佔領時,物價每28小時就上升了一倍;匈牙利戰後,物價亦曾每15小時增加一倍。而1993年10月至1994年1月間,南斯拉夫每月通脹就高達百分之三億一千三百萬。烏克蘭、秘魯、墨西哥、阿根廷、巴西等,在80或90年代的時候,亦同樣面對嚴重通貨膨脹。來到最近期,辛巴威的貨幣面值更令人難以自信地達到一百萬億。


可見,貨幣的價值一直處於貶值的局面,就以現今最長壽作爲英國貨幣已超過300年的英磅為例,雖然從表面看來,英磅似乎打破貨幣必然會崩潰的定律,但事實上卻不然。原來,英磅在300多年前發行時,實際上是一種以白銀為相對價值的貨幣,即所謂「銀本位」。後來英磅曾改為「金本位」,當第一次世界大戰結束後,英國於1931年便取消所有金本位,變為完全沒有任何背後價值支持的「法定貨幣」(Fiat Currency)。由最初一英磅兌一磅白銀的兌換率,即十二安士白銀;直至今天,其價值已經下跌超過99%以上,價值只有當初英磅發行時的千分之六,對比當初的價值,英磅已經等同廢紙。故此,英磅(Pound)真正所代表的意思,是指以前的兌換率︰一英磅可兌換十二安士白銀。

參考影片︰The Short, Unhappy Lives of Fiat Currencies

以下是影片節錄的文字版本︰

The average life expectancy for a fiat currency is 27 years
法定貨幣的平均壽命為27年

Every 30 to 40 years, the reigning monetary system fails and has to be retooled
根據華盛頓博客的資料,每30至40年

from Washington’s Blog
支配當代的貨幣體系會崩潰,並要更換

David Galland notes:
David Galland指出:

Monetary scholar Edwin Vieira pointed out that every 30 to 40 years
貨幣學者Edwin Vieira指,每30至40年

the reigning monetary system fails and has to be retooled
支配當代的貨幣體系會崩潰,並要更換

The last time around for the US was in 1971
美國上一次崩潰是在1971年

when Nixon cancelled the convertibility of dollars into gold
當尼克森總統停止美元兌換黃金之時

Remarkably
值得注意的是

the world bought into the unbacked dollar as its reserve currency
世界完全相信並無實質支撐的美元作其儲備貨幣

but only because that was the path of least resistance
但僅僅因為這是阻力最小的路

But here we are 40 years later and it is clear to anyone paying attention that
40年後的今天,任何留心的人都知道

the monetary system is irretrievably broken, and will fail
貨幣體系將崩潰至無法挽救的地步,並會瓦解

What will replace it is still unclear
目前還不清楚甚麼將取代它

but I suspect that when the stuff really hits the fan and inflation rages
但我猜,當現行系統出麻煩和通脹肆虐

the government will try the approach taken by
政府將採取早於1920年代

the Germans to end their hyperinflation back in the 1920s
德國用來結束惡性通脹的方式來解決

coming up with the equivalent of the Rentenmark –
他們會提出相當於「地租馬克」——

a dollar that is loosely linked to some basket of commodities and financial instruments
一種鬆散地聯繫至一籃子的商品和金融工具的貨幣

It won’t be convertible
它不可被兌換

because it would be impossible for bank tellers to exchange your dollar for a cup of oil
因銀行職員不能將你的金錢換成一杯油

and a coupon off of a bond, and a chip of gold
和將債券換成優惠劵或一片黃金

or whatever makes up the basket
或任何組成該貨幣籃子的東西

but it might restore some semblance of confidence in the currency
但它可能會恢復一些類似對貨幣的信心

That’s one option
這是一個選擇

Another is that some government decides to make its currency convertible into precious metals
另一個則是,某些政府會決定使其貨幣能兌換貴金屬

but that will only happen when all other less fiscally restraining systems
但這只會在其他較少財政約束的貨幣系統

have been floated and failed
已被採納和瓦解後才發生

Simply, at this point, we can’t know what will replace the current monetary system
不過,現在還不知道甚麼會取代目前的貨幣體系

or when
或甚麼時候會發生

All we can know is that the status quo cannot and so will not survive this crisis
我們只肯定現時的系統是無法熬過這次危機的

Regardless, between now and the point in time
無論如何,從現時到某刻

where the Fed throws in the towel on today’s fiat monetary system
一旦美聯儲放棄現時的法定貨幣體系

you would have to be naïve in the extreme not to expect volatility, uncertainty
那麼你要極度天真才覺得不會出現波動、不確定

and wholesale financial dislocations
或出現大規模金融動盪

Chris Mack writes:
Chris Mack寫道:

According to a study of 775 fiat currencies by DollarDaze.org
根據由DollarDaze.org對775種法定貨幣作的研究

there is no historical precedence for a fiat currency that has succeeded in holding its value
歷史上並無法定貨幣能成功保值的先例

20% failed through hyperinflation
20%因惡性通脹而作廢

21% were destroyed by war
21%遭戰爭破壞

12% destroyed by independence
12%毀於國家獨立

24% were monetarily reformed
24%經歷貨幣改革

and 23% are still in circulation approaching one of the other outcomes
23%是仍在流通但面臨以上命運的貨幣

The average life expectancy for a fiat currency is 27 years, with the shortest life span being one month
法定貨幣平均壽命為27年,最短為一個月

Founded in 1694, the British pound Sterling is the oldest fiat currency in existence
成立於1694年,英鎊是現存歷史最悠久的法定貨幣

At a ripe old age of 317 years
活至317年之高齡

it must be considered a highly successful fiat currency
它必被認為是非常成功的法定貨幣

However, success is relative
但成功是相對的

The British pound was defined as 12 ounces of silver
一英鎊定義為12盎司白銀

so it’s worth less than 1/200 or 0.5% of its original value
故現價只值起始的1/200或0.5%

In other words, the most successful longstanding currency in existence
換句話說,史上最成功的貨幣

has lost 99.5% of its value
已失去其原本價值的99.5%

Given the undeniable track record of currencies
根據無可否定的貨幣記錄

it is clear that on a long enough timeline, the survival rate of all fiat currencies drops to zero
顯然當時間足夠,所有法定貨幣的存活率便下降至零

And Jeff Clark points out:
Jeff Clark指出:

History has a message for us:
歷史給我們一個信息:

No fiat currency has lasted forever
沒有法定貨幣能永遠維持下去

Eventually, they all fail
最終它們必定瓦解

BMG BullionBars recently published a poster
BMG BullionBars網站最近公布了

featuring pictures of numerous currencies that have gone bust
一張展示許多被廢貨幣圖片的海報

Some got there quickly, while others took a century or more
一些很快崩潰,而另一些則熬了逾一個世紀

Regardless of how long it took, though
但無論存在多長時間

the seductive temptations allowed under a fiat monetary system
法定貨幣體系下的誘惑

eventually caught up with these governments
最終會令各國政府自作自受

and their currencies went… poof!
他們的貨幣會化為烏有!

You might suspect that this happened only to Third World countries
你可能會認為這只會發生在第三世界國家

You’d be wrong
你就錯了

There was no discrimination as to the size or perceived stability of a nation’s economy
貨幣崩潰宿命與國家經濟或穩定性無關

if the leaders abused their currency
若一國領導濫用其貨幣

the country paid the price
國家便須付出沉重代價

As you look at the pictures here
當你看到這些圖片

you’ll see some long-ago casualties
會看到一些很久以前的受害者

What’s shocking though, is how many have occurred in our lifetime?
令人震驚的是,有多少已在我們有生之年發生?

You might count how many currencies
你可以計算一下,從你出生至今

have failed since you’ve been born
有多少貨幣體系崩潰了

So what’s the one word for the “thousand pictures” you are seeing?
那麼,可用哪個字來形容你所看到的「千幅圖」?

Worthless
一文不值




放棄金本位
貨幣等於步向化為烏有的一刻


最重要,當美國自1971年起宣布放棄金本位,不但等於將美元判了死刑,更令各國相倣。要知道這意味著政府不會再限制其開支,貪婪地不斷用印製所謂貨幣的紙張向人民借貸度日。終有一天,全世界人都會發現不但美元,甚至全世界的貨幣都是一文不值。實際上,世界強國美國的美元系統,經已變為一個層壓式推銷的龐大騙局。一旦騙局泡沫爆破,所有以美元作支持的經濟系統都會完全崩潰,驚醒他們手上的現金或與美元掛鉤的一切,都會化為烏有。

一個最可笑且諷刺的現實,如此下去,世上將不會有任何一種貨幣是安全的, 惟有只剩下最保值的便是「冥鈔」,因為它是多少錢為一疊,到那時候也是多少錢為一疊,信不信由你。



相關文章
美債氾濫危機

1 則留言: