2015年9月9日星期三

工業用銀從市場消失了?


事實上,大家都知道現在世界上,除了正調查倫敦銀行同業拆放利率(Libor)的罪行,現在不了了之,另外就是操控金價。

白銀的短缺:

GFMS 分析師 Andrew Leyland 稱,新的白銀礦廠沒看見新投資,恐難以令白銀出產持續刷新紀錄高位。另外,在 2015 8 18 日,著名白銀投資顧問網站 Silver Doctor 主持人之一, Doc 接受另一個貴金屬投資網站 Shadow of Truth 的負責人訪問時, 他們討論到,原來全球實貨黃金和白銀已經出現嚴重短缺。



例如︰加拿大鑄幣局,對於實貨銀幣的訂單,已經要拖延很長時間才能夠交貨。另一方面,即使是全球最大的工業用白銀供應商,都需要 8 12個星期的延期,才能夠提交俗稱「垃圾銀袋」,含銀量約 90%的不純銀。事實上,已經沒有供應商願意以目前的白銀價格,出售他們手上的存貨,所以,即使有存貨亦不會供應


白銀產品的停產:

從歷史角度來看,當白銀將要爆發性暴升之前,都會先出現以上情況。而現今的白銀價格,只是銀行家藉著紙銀交易來沽空銀價,令白銀價格長期陷於低位,甚至低於開採和提煉的成本價。另外,美國鑄幣局的白銀產品,由八月份開始,出產量已經是按星期下降 20%,而加拿大的鑄幣局,在八月第二個星期已經不接受任何白銀產品的訂單了,楓葉銀幣亦已經無了
期停產。



2015 8 18 日貴金屬投資網站 Shadow of Truth 訪問 Silver Doctor 主持人 Doc 的談內容」




影片中部分文字內容:

And whats happening with the shortages?
白銀短缺究竟是甚麼一回事?

And I wanted to be specific about this 'cause a couple of weeks ago, you had made mention of one of the large wholesalers having a bunch of empty warehouses.
我想具體談談這一點,因為你兩週前提及,有一家大型批發商只餘下一堆空置倉庫。

Yeah, I mean a lot of the authorized dealers and wholesalers have pretty much been cleaned out of
everything that was stacked up in their warehouses.
是的,有很多授權經銷商,和批發商都幾乎被清倉,倉庫以前堆積的存貨都被清掉。

And I think weve talked about it all over the weekend that about a month ago with that first day of
take-down in silver, all of the fastest movers in the US market were cleaned out right away really within an hour or two.
週末談及過,約一個月前當銀價首次下跌,美國市場所有最暢銷的白銀產品馬上賣光,僅僅在一至兩小時內。

And Im talking about like Silver Eagles 90%, Silver Maples common 100-ounce bars like Royal Canadian Mint Johnson Matthey, and that type of thing.
我指的是 90%鷹揚銀幣、楓葉銀幣,普遍的百盎司銀條,像加拿大皇家鑄幣廠,莊信萬豐,及類似白銀產品。

But therere still the other worlds mints coins were still pretty readily available, such as like the Royal Mint over in the UK, the Australian Mints coins some of the Perth products like the Philharmonics, the Austrian Mint the Armenian Mint that made the Noahs Ark coins Libertad, things like that, from the Bank of Mexico.
但其他國家的鑄幣廠出產的銀幣仍有存貨,如英國皇家鑄幣局、皇家澳洲鑄幣廠,以及一些珀斯產品,如奧地利愛樂團銀幣,亞美尼亞鑄造廠鑄製的諾亞方舟銀幣,及墨西哥銀行的 Libertad 銀幣等產品。

And really, weve seen over the last week all of those products have finally disappeared from the market and are not available anymore.
真的,過去一週已看到所有這些產品,最終從市場上消失,不再有供應。

Basically just once investors, both of the premiums, indoor availability that they just cant get Eagles, Maples they start turning to alternative products
基本上,因附加費與存貨量不足,投資者未能買入鷹揚、楓葉銀幣,故便開始轉向其他產品

So, now we are seeing that those are now pretty much sold out across the market.
現在看到市場其他產品也差不多售罄。

Now, are you not able to get these at this point?
現在是否已買不到這些產品?

I mean, we cant get any further.
我意思是,無法購入更多。

Mexican Libertad, cant get any further.
連墨西哥的 Libertad 也買不到。

Noahs Ark coins from the Armenian Mint the supply is almost gone on Britannias.
亞美尼亞諾亞方舟銀幣亦然,英國不列顛女神銀幣幾乎缺貨。

Yeah, pretty much across the spectrum. Theyre selling out the wholesale level and the other foreign mint coins.
是的,幾乎全線售罄,現在連批發商也缺貨,其他外國銀幣也售罄。

My God. What are the people that you talked to, authorized purchasers, etc., industry wholesalers what are they saying about, or are they saying anything about the future supply?
天啊,你跟授權買家、批發商傾談,他們在說甚麼,或者他們對未來供應有何見解?

And I asked this in the context of Bill Murphy at GATA was told about a month ago or six weeks ago by a London silver trader that there were random rumors going around the LBMA that theres gonna be massive shortages in September and October and the refiners would have trouble getting any kind of raw silver or pre-refined silver that they could turn into blanks.
我這樣問,是因為黃金反壟斷協會主席 Bill Murphy,約 6 週或 1 個月前從一位倫敦白銀交易員得知,在倫敦金銀市場協會中有傳言指,白銀將在 9 月及 10 月嚴重缺貨,精煉商會難以獲取任何類型的白銀原材料,來製造銀幣坯餅。

Are you hearing anything like that?
有聽到這樣的事嗎?

I mean, we havent specifically talked about that with our wholesalers and distributors I mean I really havent asked them, point blank, that question.
我們沒有跟批發商和分銷商特別談過此問題,我實在沒有直接問他們。

I mean, anecdotally though, it sure wouldn't surprise me if that were to be the case.
對於這傳聞,即使是真的,我也不感驚訝。

I mentioned in our update over the weekend that theprobably, one of the two most popular and most common 100-ounce silver bars at a private mint level, theyre sold through one single authorized distributor here in the US and without naming their names.
上週末我曾在更新資料中指,一種在私人鑄銀界中最暢銷及流行的百盎司銀條,全是通過單一授權經銷商在美國售出,在不揭露他們的名字下。

When did I ask? I think it was Tuesday.
我在何時問呢?我猜是週二。

They were contractually expecting the delivery of a thousand 100-ounce silver bars or a million ounces and they delivered 30,000 bars, 300,000 ounces so about a third, a little bit less than a third of what theyve been contractually obligated to deliver and so thats not a blank issue, I mean those are 100-ounce bars.
他們按合約預期能運送,1 千個百盎司銀條,或 100 萬盎司,實際卻運送 3 萬個銀條,或 30 萬盎司,即略低於合約訂明的份量的三分之一,那不是個小事,所牽涉的是百盎司銀條。

Right. Thats a significant difference.
對,那是很明顯的分別。

When you failed to deliver two-thirds of a contract thats a default, or would be...in...just about any other industry.
當你未能交付合約訂明的三分之二時,就相等於違約了,其他行業是這樣的。

Right.
對。

Its probably a Force Majeure clause in his contract just like there is in the Comex contract.
他的合約中可能存在不可抗力條款,如紐約商交所合約一樣。

Probably.
可能吧。

But whats interesting about that, Doc, correct me if I am a little off track here. If hes having trouble getting refined bars from refiners that means refiners are having trouble getting enough of pre-refined supply from silver miners themselves.
但有趣的是,Doc,希望我沒有離題,如果它難以向精煉廠取得精煉過的金屬條,就意味著精煉廠難以向銀礦取得足夠供應。

Right, exactly I think its worth knowing that a lot of the investors in the community dont quite understand they look at the Comex level purely as a gauge of whether theres a shortage or not and really not understanding that the wholesale, like the refinery, the minting market in the US.
絕對正確,值得注意的是,許多投資者不太明白,他們單純地視紐約商交所為指標,去衡量供應是否短缺,卻不從批發市場、精煉廠、鑄造市場的角度了解。

I mean Comex is irrelevant to them.
它們是與紐約商交所無關的。

I mean the only way Comex would be drained is.
我意思是,唯一令紐約商交所缺貨的原因,

If they cant source supply anywhere else.
是廠商已無法從其他貨源取得供應,

I mean when you are talking about like Elemetal Capital and Republic the two largest refineries mints in the US, its nearly all scrap recycling thats the type of silver that they are using to mint products.
試思想一下 Elemetal Capital Republic,它們是美國兩家最大的金屬精煉鑄造商,它們做的幾乎都是「廢料再循環」,從廢料中提取白銀來鑄造貨品.

They are not, for the most part, they are not taking thousands of bars off the Comex just too expensive, too cumbersome and not as big a profit margin of them buying metal back, recycling and thats part of their spread.
他們絕大部分不是向紐約商交所購買千條銀條,因為那太昂貴、太不方便,
並且毛利較回購金屬和循環再造為低,那是他們賺取差價的一環。
So yeah, if youre following what I am saying you are not really going to see massive decline on the
Comex until they cant get enough scrap supply they cant get anything from the primary and secondary mines coming out of the ground.
是的,若然你明白我說的話,就知道紐約商交所存貨是不會大幅度下降,除非他們無法再取得足夠廢金屬供應,無法再從一級及二級交易商取得任何供應。

Thats the point that Comex is drained, not really before that.
這導致紐約商交所缺貨,之前並非這樣。

Thats actually a point I'd like to address really quickly here.
在這裡我想很快的帶出一點,

I know we want to keep this short, but, the problem with the Comex is that people look at the numbers that come from the CME and they think those are the numbers.
我想盡量簡化,但紐約商交所的問題是,當投資者參考芝加哥商品交易的數據時,就以為那些是真實的數據。

And the fact of the matter is that, every single report that you see about whats happening on the Comex originates with the banks who are the vault custodians and the market clearing banks.
然而,真相是每一份關於紐約商交所的報告,都是源自於銀行,亦即庫存保管人和清算銀行。

Youre talking about JP Morgan, HSBC, Scotia, and a couple others but those three are the primary bank vault operators.
例如摩根大通、匯率和加拿大豐業銀行等等,這三家銀行是保管庫的主要營運商。

And so I have always questioned the degree of validity of those reports because, and we've seen in every other aspect of their business lines theyve been actually convicted and fined for fraudulent business activity.
因此我常常質疑那些報告的真實性,因為這些銀行在其他業務上,曾因詐騙而被定罪及罰款。

If theyre reporting their Comex data accurately and honestly, it would be the only business line in any of these banks that has been accurately and honestly reported.
如果他們有關紐約商交所的數據是準備真實的,那麼那就是他們唯一會說真話的業務了。

So if people look at those Comex numbers and think those are the numbers theyre being extremely naïve or uninformed, i.e. ignorant.
若然有人以為紐約商交所的數據是真實的,那些人就是極度天真或無知了。

because I can guarantee you, I would bet my last nickel that those numbers are not bona fide.
因為我可以擔保,我可以打賭,那些數據是捏造的。

and that I would bet that the inventory levels that they are reporting, especially in silver the real levels, the unencumbered, unleased, unhypothecated inventory on the Comex is a lot lower than the numbers that they are showing.
我敢打賭紐約商交所庫存的數據,特別是白銀,那真實、未抵押、未租借、未擔保的庫存,肯定大大低於他們報告的水帄。

I certainly agree with that. And I just had that regardless even if they were real, which I agreed with you that they are likely not they are really irrelevant in the big scheme of things.
我絕對認同,即使數據是真確的,而我認同它們似乎不是,這些數據也與大圖片格格不入。

Yeah, I mean this is a big paper shuffle.
是的,這是一個大型數字遊戲。

I mean as far as the metal that they supposedly have in the vaults.
他們保管庫理應存有金屬。

I mean, does it ever go anywhere?
但可曾送到過任何地方嗎?

Do people actually take delivery? Are people actually taking delivery?
實際上人們能提貨嗎?人們能取貨嗎?

I mean if they are, its very, very little.
如果他們能,那都只是冰山一角。

I mean in particular when you look at the sheer volume of trading that happened versus the volume of deliveries that happened, they are not in the same planet they are not in the same, they are irrelevant or Im just way off base with that.
特別是當你對比交易數量與發貨數量,兩者是存著巨大差異的它們是不一樣,互不相關的,否則我真是大錯特錯了。

No, in fact, we used to take delivery of gold and silver bars off the Comex occasionally in our fund and we did it, last time we did it was in 2010 because the premiums on Silver Eagle has spiked up back then and it was cheaper.
不,事實上,我們基金過往會從紐約商交所提取金銀條,我們會的,上次交易是在 2010 年,因為當時鷹揚銀幣的附加費飆升,令商交所價格相對便直。

We normally prefer to keep fungible silver and gold in our depository, but it was cheaper to source silver at the spot price on the manipulated spot price on the Comex, so we decided to take delivery of some silver bars.
我們通常會在倉庫保存可互換的白銀和黃金,由於當時紐約商交所的白銀現貨價較便宜,亦即那被操控的白銀現貨價,我們決定提取一些銀條。

It took us seven weeks to get the bars after the last delivery date.
但卻距離上一次送貨後的 7 週才收到銀條。

The last delivery date is the end of the month and then the contract specifies a three-day grace period, in which your counterparty has to make arrangements either for you to send them a truck, you know, like a Brink's truck or for them to deliver to your vault, or your depository.
最後送貨日期是月底,而合同規定有 3 天寬限期,期間你的交易對手必頇做出安排,要不你派遣卡車到他們那裡,如布林克斯卡車,要不就讓他們送貨到你的保管庫或倉庫。

It took seven weeks, and our counterparty was HSBC, and if our fund...
花了 7 週,我們的對手是匯豐銀行,如果……

Thats why you dont see the mints really utilizing the Comex.
這解釋為何美國鑄幣廠都不利用紐約商交所。

I mean that doesnt, when you have most sellers and suppliers minting coins and bars.
因為大部分銷售商和供應商鑄造金銀幣、銀條。

now you cant have delivery in seven to ten weeks and not knowing when you need it now.
卻不能在 7 10 星期內取貨,他們需要貨物,卻不知何時運抵。

Right, exactly.
沒錯,正是!

And that was the last time that we decided to take delivery from the Comex. It just cant be trusted.
那是我們在紐約商交所取貨的最後一次,它是不可信的。

And Id have gone after them just to bust their jobs legally for breach of contract.
我幾乎想起訴他們違反合同。

but our fund, if our fund was a lot bigger, Id have spent the money but it wouldnt have been worth the time and effort.
如果我們的基金夠大的話,我會花錢的,但那不值得我們花時間和精力。

But I was shocked, because it took seven weeks for that delivery process to happen.
但我感到震驚,因為送貨竟需時 7 週。

What happens when youre dealing with paper instead of physical?
若你買賣的是紙金屬,情況會怎樣?

So what happens when youre dealing with criminals on the other side?
若你應付的是另一邊的罪犯,情況會怎樣?

Well, that too.
嗯,一樣的。

Well, Doc, whats going on with your customer base without giving any details as far as, I mean, are you seeing any large orders coming in. Is there anybody at all, or anybody selling anything back to you? I mean, I doubt they are, but, I mean, theres possibility.
Doc,那麼你的客戶群情況大概是怎樣?我意思是,你看見任何大訂單出現嗎?或有任何人出售東西給你嗎?我懷疑會否有人這樣做,但有這樣的可能。

We actually have had a few customers this week selling some coins to us, on the heels of the gold and silver popping a little bit. Thats really the first weve seen anything in probably six weeks.
我們這星期確實有幾個客戶,在金銀價格小幅回升時放售紀念幣給我們,大概是 6 週內首次放售。

Before this week, I cant remember last time we had a single purchase back from a customer which is quite astonishing.
之前的我不太記得,上一次我們從某客戶回購的數量頗為驚人。

So we have had that come back this week.
這星期回購確實再次發生。

It continued though large purchases, large purchasers still a lot of new customers to the market but we arent really quite at the level of buying frenzy that we saw early the mid-July.
但大量採購、大型採購商仍持續,出現很多新客戶進入市場但還未到早前 7 月中旬搶購的狂熱程度。

But are you seeing a kind of a spike at all? Or what kind of movement are you seeing with new customers?
但你看到急升的現象嗎?或你在新客戶中看到什麼趨勢呢?

I mean, cause Ive published an article from. I believe it was Money Metals Exchange about a week or so ago and they had some kind of massive 350-plus% movement to the upside of new customers, new orders during the second half of July and the first week of August.
因我大概一星期前發表了一篇文章,文章應該來自 Money Metal Exchange,指他們在新顧客及訂單上錄得逾 3.5 倍增長,時間為 7 月下半月至 8 月首星期。

I mean, are you seeing anything like that as far as new customers are concerned?
我意思是,你有類似的新客戶增長嗎?

Yeah, I havent specifically analyzed the numbers recently, but I know in July we did have quite a big massive spike of new customers as well.
是的,雖然近期我並無作具體數字分析,但就 7 月,我們已新增了大量新客戶。

Unfortunately, I dont have specific numbers to give you.
可惜未能給你具體數字。

I havent looked at it and calculated it, but we certainly also saw the same thing of a lot of brand new investors of precious metals entering the market really over the past six weeks.
我還未開始分析和統計,但可以肯定,過去 6 週,有大量新的貴金屬投資者進入市場。

Well that bodes well for all of us, doesnt it?
這對我們來說不是好事嗎?

I mean when you say that theres more.
我意思是,更多的投資者。

that means that more people are tuning in and waking up?
不就代表更多人開始醒覺並投入市場嗎?

It certainly does, and I mean a lot of them are large, net worth investors which is, at least to me, another anecdotal sign that were closer to the bottom.
絕對是,他們大多是巨額及淨值投資者,至少對我而言是另一個銀價見底的訊號。

If we havent bottomed already then obviously to any top, or anything like that the smart money is now entering physical metals.
若然市場仍未見底,即明顯地白銀的價位,正吸引一批專家級資金投入實體金屬市場。

Now as you know, I not only have. The Daily Coin but I also assist Sean with the SUT report and as such.
你知道我不單參與 The Daily Coin 的工作,我也有協助 Sean SUT 報告。

I visit probably 75 to 100 news websites a day and Im not exaggerating.
每天瀏覽大約 75 100 個新聞網站,一點也沒有誇張。

And in that, I look at comments, I go to the comments section and what Im saying is that, these are all over the place as far as people are questioning all of this conversation that were having right now, and because theyre able to go to eBay and get whatever they want. They are able to go to this online dealer or their local coin dealer.
從網站中意見欄的留言,看到周圍的人也在質疑此情況,就是我們現在討論的話題,因為他們現時上 eBay 網站,隨時想買多少就有多少,他們亦可以到網上經銷商或本地銀幣店購買。

or...what do you say to that?
就此情況你有甚麼回應?

It really is just a matter of perspective.
這只不過是觀點問題。

I mean weve seen the same thing.
我們也看見同樣情況。

and Silver Doctors made posts over the weekend with all kinds of comments saying.
Silver Doctors 週末公告的留言都說。

Oh youre offering Silver Eagles right now for $2.99 in any quantity, so obviously theres no shortage.
現在你們的鷹揚銀幣,無論任何數量皆以 2.99 美元一枚出售,那顯然表明了沒有缺貨。

To me its just really a matter of perspective.
對我而言這只是觀點問題。

If you want two coins, yeah youre likely be able to get that from us whether its SD Bullion or any other major dealers or your local dealer currently.
如果你想要兩枚銀幣,對,你可以從這裡買到,或從 SD Bullion 或其他主要或本地經銷商買入。

But I mean to put things in perspective.
但如果從另一觀點看。

I mean when us or another dealer we list a special on Silver Eagles right now.
無論是我們或其他經銷商,雖然現在正以特價發售鷹揚銀幣。

I mean few weeks back we, on this mint site, we placed what was for us a decent-sized inventory order and I mean we might be down I havent looked at numbers but we might be down to 5,000 coins thats like 10 Monster Boxes which is nothing.
但數週前,我們於此鑄幣局網站下了一訂單,數量不俗,而我們可能只會剩下……我沒實數,但存貨可能下跌至 5 千枚銀幣,那大約是 10 個大箱存貨,但那點數量根本算不得甚麼。

Its not very much.
真的不多。

I mean when you look at the investment wealth from the US, what is a couple of hundred thousand dollars?
當對比美國人在投資上所花的資金,幾十萬美元算甚麼?

I mean its not even a pinprick, nothing in the big scheme of things.
根本連九牛一毛也算不上,什麼都不是。

So, whether its SD Bullion or Apmex or any other major dealers and look at the 100-ounce bars, whether its us or any established major dealer typically, theres hundreds of 100-ounce bars available.
故無論是 SD Bullion Apmex,或其他主要經銷商,查看其百盎司銀條,無論是我們或其他主要經銷商,一般仍有數百條百盎司銀條存貨。

I mean to the average investor pretty much, as much as you can buy.
對一般投資者而言,足夠讓他們想買多少也可以。

And theyre now all sold out, theyre gone, you cant find them for the most part.
然而現時已全部售罄,難以找到貨源供應。

So I mean its really just a matter of perspective.
所以,我說只是觀點問題。

If the US Mint has been leaking out a small amount of production then last couple of weeks been going down about 20% per week.
如果美國鑄幣局在過去兩週,不斷供應少量白銀產品,並每週減量 20%

I think the first week they resumed sales their total allocation from all the authorized dealers was I think 1.4 million coins. The next week it went down to 1 million. Last week it was down another 20%.
當時他們首週恢復配售給經銷商的數量,我估計為 140 萬枚。隨後一週減至 100 萬枚,上週實際額外減量 20%

I havent heard the numbers yet this week, but its been going down by 20-plus% a week.
我仍未知道本週數字,但就是一直每週減量逾 20%

The Royal Canadian Mint didnt even take any orders last week, and theyre not advising when theyre going to take any further orders from Maples.
上週,加拿大皇家鑄幣廠甚至完全不接受訂單,亦無透露何時會重新接受楓葉銀幣的訂單。

The US Mint has been kind of they havent ousted but they have been advising their authorized dealers that they may make the switch over to the 2016 Silver Eagles in September, which
美國鑄幣局沒有攆走授權經銷商,但通知他們,指他們會在 9 月轉為 2016 年鷹揚銀幣。

Ha ha...
哈哈

That was pretty hot production and try to build inventory of blanks.
那絕對是非常熱賣的產品,也詴圖建立銀幣坯餅存貨。

Exactly, I mean.
是的!

Its acknowledgement of a shortage.
但這代表了白銀短缺。

Right, because they dont want to come out and say that they are just going to shut down production for three months.
是的,因為他們不想公開說將要停產 3 個月。

because I mean, it doesnt take three months to change the first die in Silver Eagle from the 2015 number to 2016 I mean, any private mint can get that done in an hour.
他們根本不用 3 個月時間,來把鷹揚鑄模由數字 2015 改為 2016,私人鑄幣廠只需 1 小時便能辦妥。

小結:

毋庸置疑,白銀的供不應求,已備受大眾所關注!倘使白銀出現短缺的時候,當你那刻才知悉的話,白銀經已升上天價,那時的你經已太遲察覺了!主題:工業用銀已經從市場上消失

事實上,大家都知道現在世界上,除了正調查倫敦銀行同業拆放利率(Libor)的罪行,現在不了了之,另外就是操控金價。在今年 5 13 日,中國大陸網站「金銀界」報道,據世界白銀協會與湯森路透 GFMS 發佈的《世界白銀調查 2015》報告顯示,全球白銀出產在 2014 年增長 5% 8.775 億盎司,刷新歷史高位且為連續第十二年取得增長,不過,預料 2015 年,全球白銀出產將下滑。

白銀的短缺:

GFMS 分析師 Andrew Leyland 稱,新的白銀礦廠沒看見新投資,恐難以令白銀出產持續刷新紀錄高位。另外,在 2015 8 18 日,著名白銀投資顧問網站 Silver Doctor 主持人之一, Doc 接受另一個貴金屬投資網站 Shadow of Truth 的負責人訪問時, 他們討論到,原來全球實貨黃金和白銀已經出現嚴重短缺。

例如︰加拿大鑄幣局,對於實貨銀幣的訂單,已經要拖延很長時間才能夠交貨。另一方面,即使是全球最大的工業用白銀供應商,都需要 8 12個星期的延期,才能夠提交俗稱「垃圾銀袋」,含銀量約 90%的不純銀。事實上,已經沒有供應商願意以目前的白銀價格,出售他們手上的存貨,所以,即使有存貨亦不會供應

白銀產品的停產:

從歷史角度來看,當白銀將要爆發性暴升之前,都會先出現以上情況。而現今的白銀價格,只是銀行家藉著紙銀交易來沽空銀價,令白銀價格長期陷於低位,甚至低於開採和提煉的成本價。另外,美國鑄幣局的白銀產品,由八月份開始,出產量已經是按星期下降 20%,而加拿大的鑄幣局,在八月第二個星期已經不接受任何白銀產品的訂單了,楓葉銀幣亦已經無了期停產。

2015 8 18 日貴金屬投資網站 Shadow of Truth 訪問 Silver Doctor 主持人 Doc 的談內容」

And whats happening with the shortages?
白銀短缺究竟是甚麼一回事?

And I wanted to be specific about this 'cause a couple of weeks ago, you had made mention of one of the large wholesalers having a bunch of empty warehouses.
我想具體談談這一點,因為你兩週前提及,有一家大型批發商只餘下一堆空置倉庫。

Yeah, I mean a lot of the authorized dealers and wholesalers have pretty much been cleaned out of
everything that was stacked up in their warehouses.
是的,有很多授權經銷商,和批發商都幾乎被清倉,倉庫以前堆積的存貨都被清掉。

And I think weve talked about it all over the weekend that about a month ago with that first day of
take-down in silver, all of the fastest movers in the US market were cleaned out right away really within an hour or two.
週末談及過,約一個月前當銀價首次下跌,美國市場所有最暢銷的白銀產品馬上賣光,僅僅在一至兩小時內。

And Im talking about like Silver Eagles 90%, Silver Maples common 100-ounce bars like Royal Canadian Mint Johnson Matthey, and that type of thing.
我指的是 90%鷹揚銀幣、楓葉銀幣,普遍的百盎司銀條,像加拿大皇家鑄幣廠,莊信萬豐,及類似白銀產品。

But therere still the other worlds mints coins were still pretty readily available, such as like the Royal Mint over in the UK, the Australian Mints coins some of the Perth products like the Philharmonics, the Austrian Mint the Armenian Mint that made the Noahs Ark coins Libertad, things like that, from the Bank of Mexico.
但其他國家的鑄幣廠出產的銀幣仍有存貨,如英國皇家鑄幣局、皇家澳洲鑄幣廠,以及一些珀斯產品,如奧地利愛樂團銀幣,亞美尼亞鑄造廠鑄製的諾亞方舟銀幣,及墨西哥銀行的 Libertad 銀幣等產品。

And really, weve seen over the last week all of those products have finally disappeared from the market and are not available anymore.
真的,過去一週已看到所有這些產品,最終從市場上消失,不再有供應。

Basically just once investors, both of the premiums, indoor availability that they just cant get Eagles, Maples they start turning to alternative products
基本上,因附加費與存貨量不足,投資者未能買入鷹揚、楓葉銀幣,故便開始轉向其他產品

So, now we are seeing that those are now pretty much sold out across the market.
現在看到市場其他產品也差不多售罄。

Now, are you not able to get these at this point?
現在是否已買不到這些產品?

I mean, we cant get any further.
我意思是,無法購入更多。

Mexican Libertad, cant get any further.
連墨西哥的 Libertad 也買不到。

Noahs Ark coins from the Armenian Mint the supply is almost gone on Britannias.
亞美尼亞諾亞方舟銀幣亦然,英國不列顛女神銀幣幾乎缺貨。

Yeah, pretty much across the spectrum. Theyre selling out the wholesale level and the other foreign mint coins.
是的,幾乎全線售罄,現在連批發商也缺貨,其他外國銀幣也售罄。

My God. What are the people that you talked to, authorized purchasers, etc., industry wholesalers what are they saying about, or are they saying anything about the future supply?
天啊,你跟授權買家、批發商傾談,他們在說甚麼,或者他們對未來供應有何見解?

And I asked this in the context of Bill Murphy at GATA was told about a month ago or six weeks ago by a London silver trader that there were random rumors going around the LBMA that theres gonna be massive shortages in September and October and the refiners would have trouble getting any kind of raw silver or pre-refined silver that they could turn into blanks.
我這樣問,是因為黃金反壟斷協會主席 Bill Murphy,約 6 週或 1 個月前從一位倫敦白銀交易員得知,在倫敦金銀市場協會中有傳言指,白銀將在 9 月及 10 月嚴重缺貨,精煉商會難以獲取任何類型的白銀原材料,來製造銀幣坯餅。

Are you hearing anything like that?
有聽到這樣的事嗎?

I mean, we havent specifically talked about that with our wholesalers and distributors I mean I really havent asked them, point blank, that question.
我們沒有跟批發商和分銷商特別談過此問題,我實在沒有直接問他們。

I mean, anecdotally though, it sure wouldn't surprise me if that were to be the case.
對於這傳聞,即使是真的,我也不感驚訝。

I mentioned in our update over the weekend that theprobably, one of the two most popular and most common 100-ounce silver bars at a private mint level, theyre sold through one single authorized distributor here in the US and without naming their names.
上週末我曾在更新資料中指,一種在私人鑄銀界中最暢銷及流行的百盎司銀條,全是通過單一授權經銷商在美國售出,在不揭露他們的名字下。

When did I ask? I think it was Tuesday.
我在何時問呢?我猜是週二。

They were contractually expecting the delivery of a thousand 100-ounce silver bars or a million ounces and they delivered 30,000 bars, 300,000 ounces so about a third, a little bit less than a third of what theyve been contractually obligated to deliver and so thats not a blank issue, I mean those are 100-ounce bars.
他們按合約預期能運送,1 千個百盎司銀條,或 100 萬盎司,實際卻運送 3 萬個銀條,或 30 萬盎司,即略低於合約訂明的份量的三分之一,那不是個小事,所牽涉的是百盎司銀條。

Right. Thats a significant difference.
對,那是很明顯的分別。

When you failed to deliver two-thirds of a contract thats a default, or would be...in...just about any other industry.
當你未能交付合約訂明的三分之二時,就相等於違約了,其他行業是這樣的。

Right.
對。

Its probably a Force Majeure clause in his contract just like there is in the Comex contract.
他的合約中可能存在不可抗力條款,如紐約商交所合約一樣。

Probably.
可能吧。

But whats interesting about that, Doc, correct me if I am a little off track here. If hes having trouble getting refined bars from refiners that means refiners are having trouble getting enough of pre-refined supply from silver miners themselves.
但有趣的是,Doc,希望我沒有離題,如果它難以向精煉廠取得精煉過的金屬條,就意味著精煉廠難以向銀礦取得足夠供應。

Right, exactly I think its worth knowing that a lot of the investors in the community dont quite understand they look at the Comex level purely as a gauge of whether theres a shortage or not and really not understanding that the wholesale, like the refinery, the minting market in the US.
絕對正確,值得注意的是,許多投資者不太明白,他們單純地視紐約商交所為指標,去衡量供應是否短缺,卻不從批發市場、精煉廠、鑄造市場的角度了解。

I mean Comex is irrelevant to them.
它們是與紐約商交所無關的。

I mean the only way Comex would be drained is.
我意思是,唯一令紐約商交所缺貨的原因,

If they cant source supply anywhere else.
是廠商已無法從其他貨源取得供應,

I mean when you are talking about like Elemetal Capital and Republic the two largest refineries mints in the US, its nearly all scrap recycling thats the type of silver that they are using to mint products.
試思想一下 Elemetal Capital Republic,它們是美國兩家最大的金屬精煉鑄造商,它們做的幾乎都是「廢料再循環」,從廢料中提取白銀來鑄造貨品.

They are not, for the most part, they are not taking thousands of bars off the Comex just too expensive, too cumbersome and not as big a profit margin of them buying metal back, recycling and thats part of their spread.
他們絕大部分不是向紐約商交所購買千條銀條,因為那太昂貴、太不方便,
並且毛利較回購金屬和循環再造為低,那是他們賺取差價的一環。
So yeah, if youre following what I am saying you are not really going to see massive decline on the
Comex until they cant get enough scrap supply they cant get anything from the primary and secondary mines coming out of the ground.
是的,若然你明白我說的話,就知道紐約商交所存貨是不會大幅度下降,除非他們無法再取得足夠廢金屬供應,無法再從一級及二級交易商取得任何供應。

Thats the point that Comex is drained, not really before that.
這導致紐約商交所缺貨,之前並非這樣。

Thats actually a point I'd like to address really quickly here.
在這裡我想很快的帶出一點,

I know we want to keep this short, but, the problem with the Comex is that people look at the numbers that come from the CME and they think those are the numbers.
我想盡量簡化,但紐約商交所的問題是,當投資者參考芝加哥商品交易的數據時,就以為那些是真實的數據。

And the fact of the matter is that, every single report that you see about whats happening on the Comex originates with the banks who are the vault custodians and the market clearing banks.
然而,真相是每一份關於紐約商交所的報告,都是源自於銀行,亦即庫存保管人和清算銀行。

Youre talking about JP Morgan, HSBC, Scotia, and a couple others but those three are the primary bank vault operators.
例如摩根大通、匯率和加拿大豐業銀行等等,這三家銀行是保管庫的主要營運商。

And so I have always questioned the degree of validity of those reports because, and we've seen in every other aspect of their business lines theyve been actually convicted and fined for fraudulent business activity.
因此我常常質疑那些報告的真實性,因為這些銀行在其他業務上,曾因詐騙而被定罪及罰款。

If theyre reporting their Comex data accurately and honestly, it would be the only business line in any of these banks that has been accurately and honestly reported.
如果他們有關紐約商交所的數據是準備真實的,那麼那就是他們唯一會說真話的業務了。

So if people look at those Comex numbers and think those are the numbers theyre being extremely naïve or uninformed, i.e. ignorant.
若然有人以為紐約商交所的數據是真實的,那些人就是極度天真或無知了。

because I can guarantee you, I would bet my last nickel that those numbers are not bona fide.
因為我可以擔保,我可以打賭,那些數據是捏造的。

and that I would bet that the inventory levels that they are reporting, especially in silver the real levels, the unencumbered, unleased, unhypothecated inventory on the Comex is a lot lower than the numbers that they are showing.
我敢打賭紐約商交所庫存的數據,特別是白銀,那真實、未抵押、未租借、未擔保的庫存,肯定大大低於他們報告的水帄。

I certainly agree with that. And I just had that regardless even if they were real, which I agreed with you that they are likely not they are really irrelevant in the big scheme of things.
我絕對認同,即使數據是真確的,而我認同它們似乎不是,這些數據也與大圖片格格不入。

Yeah, I mean this is a big paper shuffle.
是的,這是一個大型數字遊戲。

I mean as far as the metal that they supposedly have in the vaults.
他們保管庫理應存有金屬。

I mean, does it ever go anywhere?
但可曾送到過任何地方嗎?

Do people actually take delivery? Are people actually taking delivery?
實際上人們能提貨嗎?人們能取貨嗎?

I mean if they are, its very, very little.
如果他們能,那都只是冰山一角。

I mean in particular when you look at the sheer volume of trading that happened versus the volume of deliveries that happened, they are not in the same planet they are not in the same, they are irrelevant or Im just way off base with that.
特別是當你對比交易數量與發貨數量,兩者是存著巨大差異的它們是不一樣,互不相關的,否則我真是大錯特錯了。

No, in fact, we used to take delivery of gold and silver bars off the Comex occasionally in our fund and we did it, last time we did it was in 2010 because the premiums on Silver Eagle has spiked up back then and it was cheaper.
不,事實上,我們基金過往會從紐約商交所提取金銀條,我們會的,上次交易是在 2010 年,因為當時鷹揚銀幣的附加費飆升,令商交所價格相對便直。

We normally prefer to keep fungible silver and gold in our depository, but it was cheaper to source silver at the spot price on the manipulated spot price on the Comex, so we decided to take delivery of some silver bars.
我們通常會在倉庫保存可互換的白銀和黃金,由於當時紐約商交所的白銀現貨價較便宜,亦即那被操控的白銀現貨價,我們決定提取一些銀條。

It took us seven weeks to get the bars after the last delivery date.
但卻距離上一次送貨後的 7 週才收到銀條。

The last delivery date is the end of the month and then the contract specifies a three-day grace period, in which your counterparty has to make arrangements either for you to send them a truck, you know, like a Brink's truck or for them to deliver to your vault, or your depository.
最後送貨日期是月底,而合同規定有 3 天寬限期,期間你的交易對手必頇做出安排,要不你派遣卡車到他們那裡,如布林克斯卡車,要不就讓他們送貨到你的保管庫或倉庫。

It took seven weeks, and our counterparty was HSBC, and if our fund...
花了 7 週,我們的對手是匯豐銀行,如果……

Thats why you dont see the mints really utilizing the Comex.
這解釋為何美國鑄幣廠都不利用紐約商交所。

I mean that doesnt, when you have most sellers and suppliers minting coins and bars.
因為大部分銷售商和供應商鑄造金銀幣、銀條。

now you cant have delivery in seven to ten weeks and not knowing when you need it now.
卻不能在 7 10 星期內取貨,他們需要貨物,卻不知何時運抵。

Right, exactly.
沒錯,正是!

And that was the last time that we decided to take delivery from the Comex. It just cant be trusted.
那是我們在紐約商交所取貨的最後一次,它是不可信的。

And Id have gone after them just to bust their jobs legally for breach of contract.
我幾乎想起訴他們違反合同。

but our fund, if our fund was a lot bigger, Id have spent the money but it wouldnt have been worth the time and effort.
如果我們的基金夠大的話,我會花錢的,但那不值得我們花時間和精力。

But I was shocked, because it took seven weeks for that delivery process to happen.
但我感到震驚,因為送貨竟需時 7 週。

What happens when youre dealing with paper instead of physical?
若你買賣的是紙金屬,情況會怎樣?

So what happens when youre dealing with criminals on the other side?
若你應付的是另一邊的罪犯,情況會怎樣?

Well, that too.
嗯,一樣的。

Well, Doc, whats going on with your customer base without giving any details as far as, I mean, are you seeing any large orders coming in. Is there anybody at all, or anybody selling anything back to you? I mean, I doubt they are, but, I mean, theres possibility.
Doc,那麼你的客戶群情況大概是怎樣?我意思是,你看見任何大訂單出現嗎?或有任何人出售東西給你嗎?我懷疑會否有人這樣做,但有這樣的可能。

We actually have had a few customers this week selling some coins to us, on the heels of the gold and silver popping a little bit. Thats really the first weve seen anything in probably six weeks.
我們這星期確實有幾個客戶,在金銀價格小幅回升時放售紀念幣給我們,大概是 6 週內首次放售。

Before this week, I cant remember last time we had a single purchase back from a customer which is quite astonishing.
之前的我不太記得,上一次我們從某客戶回購的數量頗為驚人。

So we have had that come back this week.
這星期回購確實再次發生。

It continued though large purchases, large purchasers still a lot of new customers to the market but we arent really quite at the level of buying frenzy that we saw early the mid-July.
但大量採購、大型採購商仍持續,出現很多新客戶進入市場但還未到早前 7 月中旬搶購的狂熱程度。

But are you seeing a kind of a spike at all? Or what kind of movement are you seeing with new customers?
但你看到急升的現象嗎?或你在新客戶中看到什麼趨勢呢?

I mean, cause Ive published an article from. I believe it was Money Metals Exchange about a week or so ago and they had some kind of massive 350-plus% movement to the upside of new customers, new orders during the second half of July and the first week of August.
因我大概一星期前發表了一篇文章,文章應該來自 Money Metal Exchange,指他們在新顧客及訂單上錄得逾 3.5 倍增長,時間為 7 月下半月至 8 月首星期。

I mean, are you seeing anything like that as far as new customers are concerned?
我意思是,你有類似的新客戶增長嗎?

Yeah, I havent specifically analyzed the numbers recently, but I know in July we did have quite a big massive spike of new customers as well.
是的,雖然近期我並無作具體數字分析,但就 7 月,我們已新增了大量新客戶。

Unfortunately, I dont have specific numbers to give you.
可惜未能給你具體數字。

I havent looked at it and calculated it, but we certainly also saw the same thing of a lot of brand new investors of precious metals entering the market really over the past six weeks.
我還未開始分析和統計,但可以肯定,過去 6 週,有大量新的貴金屬投資者進入市場。

Well that bodes well for all of us, doesnt it?
這對我們來說不是好事嗎?

I mean when you say that theres more.
我意思是,更多的投資者。

that means that more people are tuning in and waking up?
不就代表更多人開始醒覺並投入市場嗎?

It certainly does, and I mean a lot of them are large, net worth investors which is, at least to me, another anecdotal sign that were closer to the bottom.
絕對是,他們大多是巨額及淨值投資者,至少對我而言是另一個銀價見底的訊號。

If we havent bottomed already then obviously to any top, or anything like that the smart money is now entering physical metals.
若然市場仍未見底,即明顯地白銀的價位,正吸引一批專家級資金投入實體金屬市場。

Now as you know, I not only have. The Daily Coin but I also assist Sean with the SUT report and as such.
你知道我不單參與 The Daily Coin 的工作,我也有協助 Sean SUT 報告。

I visit probably 75 to 100 news websites a day and Im not exaggerating.
每天瀏覽大約 75 100 個新聞網站,一點也沒有誇張。

And in that, I look at comments, I go to the comments section and what Im saying is that, these are all over the place as far as people are questioning all of this conversation that were having right now, and because theyre able to go to eBay and get whatever they want. They are able to go to this online dealer or their local coin dealer.
從網站中意見欄的留言,看到周圍的人也在質疑此情況,就是我們現在討論的話題,因為他們現時上 eBay 網站,隨時想買多少就有多少,他們亦可以到網上經銷商或本地銀幣店購買。

or...what do you say to that?
就此情況你有甚麼回應?

It really is just a matter of perspective.
這只不過是觀點問題。

I mean weve seen the same thing.
我們也看見同樣情況。

and Silver Doctors made posts over the weekend with all kinds of comments saying.
Silver Doctors 週末公告的留言都說。

Oh youre offering Silver Eagles right now for $2.99 in any quantity, so obviously theres no shortage.
現在你們的鷹揚銀幣,無論任何數量皆以 2.99 美元一枚出售,那顯然表明了沒有缺貨。

To me its just really a matter of perspective.
對我而言這只是觀點問題。

If you want two coins, yeah youre likely be able to get that from us whether its SD Bullion or any other major dealers or your local dealer currently.
如果你想要兩枚銀幣,對,你可以從這裡買到,或從 SD Bullion 或其他主要或本地經銷商買入。

But I mean to put things in perspective.
但如果從另一觀點看。

I mean when us or another dealer we list a special on Silver Eagles right now.
無論是我們或其他經銷商,雖然現在正以特價發售鷹揚銀幣。

I mean few weeks back we, on this mint site, we placed what was for us a decent-sized inventory order and I mean we might be down I havent looked at numbers but we might be down to 5,000 coins thats like 10 Monster Boxes which is nothing.
但數週前,我們於此鑄幣局網站下了一訂單,數量不俗,而我們可能只會剩下……我沒實數,但存貨可能下跌至 5 千枚銀幣,那大約是 10 個大箱存貨,但那點數量根本算不得甚麼。

Its not very much.
真的不多。

I mean when you look at the investment wealth from the US, what is a couple of hundred thousand dollars?
當對比美國人在投資上所花的資金,幾十萬美元算甚麼?

I mean its not even a pinprick, nothing in the big scheme of things.
根本連九牛一毛也算不上,什麼都不是。

So, whether its SD Bullion or Apmex or any other major dealers and look at the 100-ounce bars, whether its us or any established major dealer typically, theres hundreds of 100-ounce bars available.
故無論是 SD Bullion Apmex,或其他主要經銷商,查看其百盎司銀條,無論是我們或其他主要經銷商,一般仍有數百條百盎司銀條存貨。

I mean to the average investor pretty much, as much as you can buy.
對一般投資者而言,足夠讓他們想買多少也可以。

And theyre now all sold out, theyre gone, you cant find them for the most part.
然而現時已全部售罄,難以找到貨源供應。

So I mean its really just a matter of perspective.
所以,我說只是觀點問題。

If the US Mint has been leaking out a small amount of production then last couple of weeks been going down about 20% per week.
如果美國鑄幣局在過去兩週,不斷供應少量白銀產品,並每週減量 20%

I think the first week they resumed sales their total allocation from all the authorized dealers was I think 1.4 million coins. The next week it went down to 1 million. Last week it was down another 20%.
當時他們首週恢復配售給經銷商的數量,我估計為 140 萬枚。隨後一週減至 100 萬枚,上週實際額外減量 20%

I havent heard the numbers yet this week, but its been going down by 20-plus% a week.
我仍未知道本週數字,但就是一直每週減量逾 20%

The Royal Canadian Mint didnt even take any orders last week, and theyre not advising when theyre going to take any further orders from Maples.
上週,加拿大皇家鑄幣廠甚至完全不接受訂單,亦無透露何時會重新接受楓葉銀幣的訂單。

The US Mint has been kind of they havent ousted but they have been advising their authorized dealers that they may make the switch over to the 2016 Silver Eagles in September, which
美國鑄幣局沒有攆走授權經銷商,但通知他們,指他們會在 9 月轉為 2016 年鷹揚銀幣。

Ha ha...
哈哈

That was pretty hot production and try to build inventory of blanks.
那絕對是非常熱賣的產品,也詴圖建立銀幣坯餅存貨。

Exactly, I mean.
是的!

Its acknowledgement of a shortage.
但這代表了白銀短缺。

Right, because they dont want to come out and say that they are just going to shut down production for three months.
是的,因為他們不想公開說將要停產 3 個月。

because I mean, it doesnt take three months to change the first die in Silver Eagle from the 2015 number to 2016 I mean, any private mint can get that done in an hour.
他們根本不用 3 個月時間,來把鷹揚鑄模由數字 2015 改為 2016,私人鑄幣廠只需 1 小時便能辦妥。

小結:
毋庸置疑,白銀的供不應求,已備受大眾所關注!倘若白銀出現短缺的時候,當你那刻才知悉的話,白銀經已升上天價,那時的你經已太遲察覺了!


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4 則留言:

  1. 毋庸置疑,白銀的供不應求,已備受大眾所關注!倘若白銀出現短缺的時候,當你那刻才知悉的話,白銀經已升上天價,那時的你經已太遲察覺了!

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  2. 若按web bot預言,白銀上到天價,就是planlet x殺到埋身既時侯,或者,操控白銀的幕後黑手也應該清楚這一點,從另一個角度去看,他們是否籍著壓低白銀格價去推遲planlet x殺到嗎?

    可是若到咗真實shortage 問題時,相信黑手白手豬手都好難操控價格了,哈哈哈

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    1. 操控白銀價是知情者可做到的,但始終未能改變Planet X到來的事實

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