2015年10月24日星期六

貴金屬礦務的市場情況


貴金屬市場中,尤其是白銀方面,由20119月高峰的每安士40美元,4年間經歷了一場大熊市,價格一直跌至今天約15美元,甚至曾經跌低於這價格。


現時貴金屬市場的情況:

這段期間,所有開採黃金和白銀的礦務公司,都因為金銀價格低迷,陷於裁員、嚴重虧損、全面減產、大幅節省開支、不能再經營,甚至轉行和停業的局面。有些貴金屬礦務公司的股價,在過去幾年下跌了99%。更有些要轉行賣雞蛋、理髮產品,甚至種植大麻,以維持公司營運。

其實,黃金和白銀價格已經受到大銀行多年來的打壓,到達一個不可能再維持的低位。另一邊廂,大財團和大財閥,例如︰著名的金融大鱷索羅斯,就把握機會,在近期大手買入低廉的金銀礦務股份。

由於銀價,於2015年中開始極不合常理地低,所以市場上的白銀被瘋狂地不斷買入,直至完全斷絕供應的地步。這種市況下,銀價竟然沒有上升。因為,大銀行已經操控了紙銀市場,藉著不斷拋空紙銀而壓抑銀價。

另一方面,貴金屬礦業股價亦嚴重失衡,大企業以低於市場價格30%的價錢買入礦業股份,股價便隨即上升多達40%。但是,當外人再買入100萬股份,卻沒有令其股價上升。明顯地,礦業根本是一個完全被人為操控的市場。同時,這亦是一個典形的見底訊號。

Futuremoneytrends.com剪輯的短片:

大家可以觀看以下,由著名貴金屬投資網站futuremoneytrends.com剪輯的短片,就可以知道金銀市場已經到了一個難得的低位,所有大投資者都正在虎視眈眈,要把握這個一生人只有一次的財富增值機會。

影片:


文字內容:
You can have a bull market with flat demand or even declining demand if supply is not there
只要供應消失,你就可在需求疲弱或下跌時經歷牛市

Devastation, an unmitigated disaster
大殲滅、一個不折不扣的災難

the worst bear market in half a century
這是半個世紀以來最差的熊市

Petropavlovsk, a leading Russian gold miner
俄羅斯著名黃金礦業公司Petropavlovsk

once valued at more than $3 billion
估值曾高達30億元

was forced to tap shareholders for emergency funds
迫不得已向股東籌集應急資金

after seeing its stock fall 99% over the past five years
公司股價在過去5年大跌99%

BHP Billiton, the worlds largest publicly-traded mining stock
必和必拓,全球最大上市礦業公司

is cutting $4 billion next year from capital expenditures
將削減明年的資本支出40億美元

Rio Tinto, the worlds second-largest public mining company
力拓集團,全球第二大上市礦業公司

is cutting $1 billion this year
今年削減10億美元

and Glencore plans to cut over $800 million
嘉能可則計劃削減逾8億美元

China's state media recently reported that over the next three months
中國官方媒體近日報道,在未來3個月內

100,000 mining employees will be laid off from just one company
有一家礦業公司將會裁員10萬人

Home to the junior mining companies, the TSX Venture Exchange
初級礦業公司的集中地:多倫多創業交易所

is down 85% in nominal terms and 90% in real terms
名義價值下跌85%,實際價值下跌90%

A famous resource entrepreneur, Keith Neumeyer
著名的天然資源企業家Keith Neumeyer

who created two billion-dollar companies
創立了兩間市值數以10億美元計的公司

First Quantum Minerals started in the 1990s resource bear market
第一量子礦物公司在90年代資源熊市下開始

and First Majestic Silver
以及First Majestic Silver公司

founded at the precious metals bottom in the early 2000s
創立於21世紀初貴金屬低價時

recently started a new mineral bank company, First Mining Finance
近年他更成立了新的礦物銀行公司First Mining Finance

He stated that this is a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity
他稱這是個千載難逢的機會

because in normal times, gold is purchased for about $50 to $100 per ounce in the ground
因為金礦一般售價約每盎司50100美元

In July, his new company
今年七月,他成立的新公司

paid less than $9 per ounce
只需以低於每盎司9美元的價格

for a million ounces
購入約100萬盎司黃金

And last month, they announced two new transactions
上月,他們更宣布了兩個新交易

paying $8 and $6 per ounce of gold
均以每盎司8美元和6美元低價購入黃金

To put this into perspective
可以這樣理解

in January, New Gold paid $83 per ounce of gold when they purchased Probe Mines
一月,New Gold以每盎司83美元購入Probe Mines

In February, Centerra Gold paid $47 an ounce
今年二月,Centerra Gold以每盎司47美元

when they bought Premier Gold
購入了Premier Gold

Neumeyer, in a recent interview with us
Neumeyer在最近的一次訪問告訴我們

said that buying gold for less than $10 an ounce is really something hes never seen
他從未見過能以低於每盎司10美元價格購買黃金

and hes set to do it three times in a three-month period
他計劃每三個月購買三次

The smart money is also getting in
機伶的資金正湧入市場

Ray Dalio, George Soros, and Carl Icahn are all making big entries into the sector
戴利奥、索羅斯和伊坎也正在入市

Stanley Druckenmiller is entering too
Stanley Druckenmiller亦同樣投入金市

who from 1981 to 2010
他所管理的對沖基金於19812010年間

had an annualized rate of return of 30%
年化收益率達30%

without a single down year
從未嘗敗績

Last quarter, Mr. Druckenmiller reported
上一季度,Druckenmiller公佈

to have over 20% of his portfolio in gold
他的投資組合中有逾20%為黃金

a new position that was absent in previous quarters filings
對比之前的季度,他是沒有持有黃金的

His purchase of $323 million worth of gold
他購入了價值3.23億美元的黃金

is twice as large as his second-largest holding
是他所持第二大資產的兩倍

When it comes to the mining sector, there is blood in the streets
相對採礦業卻是血流成河

One Canadian mining company who is in the iron-ore business
其中一所開採鐵礦的加拿大礦業公司

is now selling Australian eggs to China
現已轉型出口澳洲雞蛋到中國

A Brazilian mining company is getting into the haircare business
一家巴西礦業公司亦正轉型到頭髮護理生意

Others have left mining altogether
其他公司也一起放棄了採礦業務

in search of greener pastures in the medical marijuana business
在醫藥用的大麻生意上尋找商機

US Global Investors, a popular mining investment company
美國全球投資者公司,一間著名礦業投資公司

just launched an airline ETF
就剛剛推出了追蹤航空股的交易所買賣基金

Marin Katusa, of Katusa Research
來自Katusa研究所的Marin Katusa

whos known as one of the most disciplined stock pickers in the world
被譽為世上最嚴謹的基金經理之一

noted that the junior resource market is completely dysfunctional
他指現時的初級資源市場是完全失衡的

A great example he notes
他舉了一個例子

was a two company acquisition being done by
是關於兩間公司的收購

a stock that himself, Rick Rule
收購方的大股東,就是是他本人、Rick Rule

Doug Casey and the Sprott Group are large shareholders in
Doug CaseySprott集團

First Mining Finance announced
礦務公司First Mining Finance公佈

that they would purchase Gold Canyon Resources for a share ratio of one-to-one
他們會以一比一換股方式購入Gold Canyon Resources公司

With First Mining trading at about 40 cents
當時First Mining Finance的股價是40美仙

Gold Canyon still trades at 28 cents
Gold Canyon Resources的股價只有28美仙

a 30% discount, when the fact is in a matter of a few weeks
折讓30%,但只要幾星期的時間

Gold Canyon shares will be converted to First Mining stock
Gold Canyon股票就會轉換成First Mining股票

with a potential 40% gain for investors buying shares today in October of 2015
如果投資者在201510月購入股票,就會有40%潛在利潤

Mr. Katusa stated that he bought a million shares recently
Katusa先生稱他近期就買入了100萬股

and the price didnt budge
但股價竟然沒有任何變動

even baffling a pro like him
令他那樣的專業老手也大惑不解

The same goes for PC Gold
同樣的事情發生在PC Gold身上

The stock is set to be acquired in weeks
股票將會在幾星期內

for 30% higher than it is trading for today
以高於現價大約30%被收購

Its an easy gain for investors
這本應是投資者唾手可得的回報

but the sector has been left for dead and is hated
但礦業正值死亡期而被遺棄

a classic sign of a major bottom
是一個處於低位的典型徵兆

小結:

現在,金銀價格已經被嚴重低估和壓抑,一場關於黃金和白銀商品,驚天動地的大牛市已經近在咫尺。

相關文章:
多功能的貴金屬-白銀
索羅斯看好白銀 投資銀礦


沒有留言:

發佈留言